The Swiss defends 1,000 points that are subtracted before the 1,000 Californian Masters. He will start at 310 against Nadal, who will not play but will only lose 90 and could recover the lead.
Oddly enough, if you look at the ATP ranking at this moment, Roger Federer could lose the number one in the world if he does not reach the seminals of the Masters 1000 Indian Wells, which starts on Thursday and will run until Sunday 18 of March.
Now, the Swiss leads Rafa Nadal, number two, in 600 points, but defends 1,000 in the Californian tournament (he won last year) that are subtracted before his start. The Spaniard, who will not play because of his psoas-iliac injury in his right leg, only loses 90 (in 2017 he fell in the second round against Federer). With what virtually overtakes his opponent and takes him 310 points. By reaching quarters, players earn 180, which would be insufficient for the Genie of Basel to remain on the throne. If he passes to the semifinals, 360 will be guaranteed and he will remain above Nadal.
However, the Swiss could return to the top in Miami (March 21 to April 1), where he also defends 1,000 points and 600 will be subtracted from Nadal, who won in the final of this Masters 1,000 in which neither will be the Balearic Curious battle despite the absence of one of the contenders, who could come out as number one again in the next ranking to be published on March 19.
In the absence of knowing who will be the seeds and the composition of the main draw (this Tuesday begins the qualifying run), Federer could stumble on his way with dangerous rivals such as Nishikori, Shapovalov, Raonic, Monfils, Kyrgios, Isner or even Djokovic (it is serious doubt), that they start with lower rankings than those that would correspond to them for their category.